Soybean prices not falling out of bed

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest This past year the U.S. had 94.5 million acres of corn. U.S. soybeans reached 83.7 million acres. This compares to 2015 when the U.S. corn was 88 million acres while soybeans were 82.7 million acres. As we look ahead to 2017, early ideas suggest soybean acres will increase at the expense of corn acres, which should decline. At no surprise to anyone, wheat acres across the U.S. continue to shrink. This year the U.S. planted 55 million acres of wheat. USDA estimates the U.S. will plant 50.2 million acres this next season. When there is a world wide huge mountain of wheat stocks, it is no wonder wheat prices are at 10 year lows. Ohio’s producers are seeing above average to fantastic soybean yields in many parts of the state. Many will see new farm records as yields were beyond expectations compared to earlier projections. While it is the extreme, various reports indicated soybean yields reaching 80 bushels or higher in numerous areas in Ohio.Soybeans seemed to move more easily to town this fall when those extra bushels did not reach earlier projections of $8.50 to $9 for harvest time prices. Many producers were much more willing to sell soybeans while storing corn. Basis levels for corn and soybeans did not reach the normally wide basis levels seen at harvest time for many areas of Ohio. While harvest time basis levels for soybeans were November minus 30 to 40 cents, they were nowhere close to levels seen in the western Corn Belt that this year were November minus 70 cents or more. It is very common to see basis levels in the west at wider numbers compared to Ohio. Ohio is in a unique situation with several crushing plants having the ability to crush 50,000 to 100,000 bushels of soybeans every day. At this end of October writing, the U.S. corn harvest progress was 61% while soybean harvest progress was 76% complete. Both are near five-year averages.Input costs will see some changes for the 2017 season. Fertilizer prices have declined compared to levels seen in past years. Corn and soybean prices are considerably below those seen three to five years ago with producers welcoming any kind of reduced input costs for 2017. However, seed corn costs have remained high for several years and have seen little push to the downside. Nobody seems willing to break the mold and reduce costs to the producer. However, many will provide cash discounts for early payment Dec. 1. Many producers already have a great idea of which corn varieties performed great or were a bust as corn harvest comes to an end. While many may be disappointed at corn yields for 2016, they also know they performed much better compared to similar growing conditions of 10 years ago. The killer of corn yields continues to be heat and a lack of rain during that critical corn pollination period.Corn and soybean exports continue to be strong, especially soybeans. Demand is strong for both compared to the poor corn export demand of several years ago when only soybeans enjoyed a strong export demand picture. October set new records for U.S. soybean exports.The last week of October, the U.S. exported 100 million bushels of soybeans. That level broke a previous October 2016 record of 94 million bushels. To put some perspective on numbers, in previous fall harvest years, the U.S. has struggled to reach 100 million bushels as a weekly export total for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Total 2016-2017 marketing years U.S. export sales for soybeans that same October week reached 1.24 billion bushels while the year ago totals were 997 million bushels, a gain of 24%.Late last month, December CBOT corn was near the top end of its $3.30 to $3.60 range. January CBOT soybeans were near $10.25, near the top of a two-month high. In spite of record U.S. soybean production, soybeans are not falling out of bed. Stay tuned.last_img

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